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2017 Melbourne Cup Betting Preview

racing-previews-header 2017 Melbourne Cup Betting Preview

Melbourne Cup – Field Overview

Read through our summary of each Melbourne Cup runner and we provide our best bets for the trifecta.

3. Humidor (13)

T: D K Weir J: B Shinn (56kg)
Odds: $8.50

Humidor is the current favourite for the Cup after a 2nd placing in the Cox Plate against Winx. Jockey Blake Shinn is in impressive form and Humidor is out of the Darren Weir stable. The query on Humidor is the distance as he’s untried at 3200m. He also came 5th in the Caulfield Cup at 2400m.

2. Almandin (14)

T: Robert Hickmott J: F Dettori (56.5kg)
Odds: $9.00

Almandin won the Melbourne Cup last year and is looking for a rare back-to-back victory. The concern for Almandin is whether jockey Frankie Dettori can finally find form in Australia. But Almandin does love the Flemington track (3 wins from 5 starts) and should be in your trifecta.

***5. Marmelo (16)***

T: H Morrison J: H Bowman (55kg)
Odds: $9.00 – BEST BET

We like Marmelo to possibly win the Cup and he’ll be in the trifecta. He’s shown impressive career form at 3000m with 2 straight wins at the distance over in Europe. He did finish 6th in the Caulfield Cup this year but the extra distance should suit him. Hugh Bowman is a quality jockey and he’s a decent weight at 55kg.

7. Johannes Vermeer (3)

T: A O’brien J: B Melham (54.5kg)
Odds: $10.00

Johannes Vermeer has made two starts in Australia, a 2nd in the Caulfield Stakes and 3rd in the Caulfield Cup. So his form is good enough to watch in the Cup. However, he is untried at this distance. But he’s in a good barrier and Ben Melham is in good form.

22. Rekindling (4)

T: Joseph O’brien J: C Brown (51.5kg)
Odds: $12.00

In Rekindling’s favour is a handy barrier draw (4) and he’s just carrying 51.5kg. But he’s untested in Australian conditions and that could count against him on Tuesday.

20. Wall Of Fire (15)

T: Hugo Palmer J: Craig Williams (53kg)
Odds: $13.00

Wall Of Fire hasn’t shown form at this distance over in Europe, finishing 8th and 6th in his last two attempts. His first start in Australia was a close second finish over 2400m at Caulfield. His barrier draw isn’t great either. So he’s doubtful for the win but could finish 3rd or 4th with a good run.

9. Max Dynamite (2)

T: W P Mullins J: Z Purton (54kg)
Odds: $17.00

Max Dynamite ran second in the 2015 Melbourne Cup but he’s only had 4 starts since that race. He’s one of the most experienced runners at this distance with 9 career attempts for a 1 win and 4 seconds. He has a good barrier draw and Zac Purton in the saddle. One to watch in the trifecta.

6. Red Cardinal (24)

T: Andreas Wohler J: K Mcevoy (55kg)
Odds: $18.00

Red Cardinal will be coming out of the dreaded 24 barrier but Kerrin Mc Evoy is one jockey that could overcome the wide start. Red Cardinal will be well rested from his last start and rides very well after a break. He’s also unbeaten at the distance with 2 wins from 2 starts. He’s untried at the track but his form warrants a place in the trifecta.

21. Thomas Hobson (21)

T: W P Mullins J: J Moreira (52kg)
Odds: $18.00

Thomas Hobson is coming off a second place at the Doncaster Cup (3599m) and he should be well equipped for this distance. In his career, he’s won 2 from 5 starts at 3200m. His barrier draw is a worry but he should be running on in the straight.

23. Amelie’s Star (10)

T: D K Weir J: D Yendall (51kg)
Odds: $19.00

Amelie’s Star has been very inconsistent lately. She finished 11th in the Caulfield Cup but won the Bart Cummings last start at Flemington. The concern is the distance, although she’s well drawn and very light (51kg).

13. Big Duke (5)

T: D K Weir J: B Avdulla (53.5kg)
Odds: $21.00

In April, Big Duke placed (3rd) in the Sydney Cup and showed promise down the straight. So he’ll need the same on Tuesday. The barrier draw is the most successful in the Cup’s history (8 wins). Include in the trifecta.

1. Hartnell (12)

T: James Cummings J: D Lane (57.5kg)
Odds: $26.00

Hartnell is the top weight for the Melbourne Cup which is a tough penalty. Coming off a 9th finish in the Caulfield Stakes. Hard to see him winning.

4. Tiberian (23)

T: A Couetil J: O Peslier (55.5kg)
Odds: $31.00

Terrible barrier draw but has won 2 straight starts in Europe. But untested at the distance and hard to recommend.

15. Boom Time (9)

T: D & B Hayes & T Dabernig J: C Parish (53kg)
Odds: $31.00

Huge win in the Caulfield Cup but finished 11th in the Sydney Cup at this distance. Not likely to win but could get into the first four.

10. Ventura Storm (6)

T: D & B Hayes & T Dabernig J: G Boss (54kg)
Odds: $34.00

Disappointing run in the Caulfield Cup finishing 13th. Untried at the distance and we can’t see it running a place.

18. Nakeeta (19)

T: Iain Jardine J: G Schofield (53kg)
Odds: $34.00

Decent weight but tough barrier. Has shown form over the distance and won last start at York. Not the roughest.

19. Single Gaze (11)

T: N J Olive J: K O’hara (53kg)
Odds: $41.00

Bit of a surprise for second in the Caulfield Cup but hasn’t raced over 3000m yet. So hard to bet on.

17. Libran (7)

T: C J Waller J: Dwayne Dunn (53kg)
Odds: $51.00

Lost to Who Shot Thebarman in the Moonee Valley Cup last start. Good jockey, trained by Chris Waller and a nice barrier. Not the roughest choice but can’t see it winning.

24. Cismontane (17)

T: G Waterhouse & A Bott J: B Mertens (50kg)
Odds: $51.00

Waterhouse’s only runner in the race is Cismontane. Won the Lexus last start at Flemington but this is a jump in class.

11. Who Shot Thebarman (20)

T: C J Waller J: T Berry (54kg)
Odds: $61.00

Experienced at the distance with 8 starts for a 50% place record. So could run a place.

12. Wicklow Brave (8)

T: W P Mullins J: S Baster (54kg)
Odds: $61.00

Has 7 wins from 19 starts at the distance. Finished 12th of 17 in the Caulfield Cup but should enjoy the extra distance. Not the roughest over this trip. But did finish 22nd in the Cup last year in the same barrier.

14. Us Army Ranger (22)

T: Joseph O’brien J: J Spencer (53.5kg)
Odds: $61.00

No form to speak of and only 1 start at the distance (8th). No chance.

8. Bondi Beach (1)

T: Robert Hickmott J: M Walker (54kg)
Odds: $71.00

In woeful form at Flemington, last 3 starts: 11th, 9th and 13th. No chance.

16. Gallante (18)

T: Robert Hickmott J: M Dee (53kg)
Odds: $126.00

Huge jump in class and finished 7th in the Geelong Cup. Also came 20th in the Cup last year. No chance.


Trifecta Predictions

3 horses – 2, 5, 20
Best bet – 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 13, 20

Other Predictions:

Best value – Marmelo ($9 or $10 PricePump)
Best outsider – Big Duke ($21)

Melbourne Cup Stats

Best age: Five year olds (45 wins)
Best barrier: 5 (8 wins) – 2017
Best number 4 and 12 (11 wins)
Best weight: 54.5 kgs (8 wins)

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