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AFL – Grand Final 2017 Preview, Best Bets, and Promotions

afl-previews-header AFL – Grand Final 2017 Preview, Best Bets, and Promotions

Preview of AFL Grand final with Best Bets for every game

The following AFL Grand final Preview will provide an overview of the match and our best betting predictions.


Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers

September 30, 2017 @ MCG
Odds: Crows $1.72, Tigers $2.15

Crows Form:

The Crows earned their place in the Grand Final with an impressive 61 point win over the Cats at home. They will start as the favourites in the Final as they finished top of the ladder. They have dominated in both finals so far and they will be hard to beat. This is the Crows first Grand Final since 1998 and they are 2-0 in their history (1997,1998). The Crows have been the best attacking side all year as they average 109 ppg. We’ll enjoy watching the likes of Betts and Walker on the big stage for the first time. But their defence is also underrated with Daniel Talia the key for their structure. Rory Laird has been sensational all year and he’ll lead the Crows backline moves. They got some great news at the MRP as Rory Sloane was cleared for his hit on Dangerfield.
Last 5 Matches:
WON by 61 – Crows 21.10.136, Cats 10.15.75 – Preliminary Final, 2017
WON by 36 – Crows 12.12.84, Giants 6.12.48 – Qualifying Final, 2017
LOST by 29 – Crows 10.11.71, Eagles 15.10.100 – Round 23, 2017
LOST by 3 – Crows 11.14.80, Swans 13.5.83 – Round 22, 2017
WON by 43 – Crows 18.15.123, Bombers 12.8.80 – Round 21, 2017

Tigers Form:

The Tiger train continues as they reached the Grand Final for the first time since 1982. They’re coming into the big one with four straight wins. They were challenged by the Giants last week but they won the 3rd and 4th quarter to beat them by 6 goals in the end. They also won’t be missing inspirational captain Trent Cotchin after he was cleared by the MRP. Cotchin was one of the best Tigers on the field as he laid 9 tackles and collected 26 disposals. Daniel Rioli played his best match yet with 4 crucial goals up forward. While Dustin Martin also found the goals with 3 himself. He’s likely to win the Brownlow Medal and he’ll be one of the favourite for the Norm Smith Medal. Down back, Alex Rance was again fantastic against the Giants and he’ll lineup against Walker. That matchup could decide this one.
Last 5 Matches:
WON by 36 – Tigers 15.13.103, Giants 9.13.67 – Preliminary Final, 2017
WON by 51 – Tigers 13.13.91, Cats 5.10.40 – Qualifying Final, 2017
WON by 41 – Tigers 19.8.122, Saints 12.9.81 – Round 23, 2017
WON by 104 – Tigers 25.5.155, Dockers 7.9.51 – Round 22, 2017
LOST by 14 – Tigers 9.12.66, Cats 11.14.80 – Round 21, 2017

Head to Head (Since 2010) – Crows: 5-4

The two sides met only once in 2017 and the Crows were victorious by 76 points. Both sides were 5-0 at that stage in Round 6 and the Crows showed their Premiership credentials with the large win. The Crows have also won the last three against the Tigers. But the Tigers have won the last two at the MCG, in 2013 and 2010. So they could be a chance of an upset. Overall in the history head to head since 1991, the Crows lead 23-12. But this will be the first time they’ve met in a final.

Last 2 Meetings:

Crows won by 76 points – Round 6, 2017 – Crows 21.14.140 d Tigers 10.4.64 (204 total points)
Crows won by 36 points – Round 3, 2016 – Crows 19.14.128 d Tigers 13.14.92 (220 total points)

Big Win Little Win

The AFL finals have not been close this year and we could see another blowout on Saturday in mainly Adelaide’s favour. They won the Preliminary Final by a 40+ margin and they smashed the Tigers in Round 6 by 40+ again. They’ve won the last 3 meetings by an average of 49 points as well. This season, the Crows have won 50% of their matches by 40+. But 8 of those 12 wins have come at the Adelaide Oval. They have been decent at the MCG this year with 2 wins and a draw. They’ve also won four of the last five at the venue. So if you’re looking for a value bet, the Crows 40+ could be a good one.
Best bet: Crows 40+ ($5.50)

1st Goal Scorer

In the first goal scorer markets, Eddie Betts will start as favourite at $8.50. He kicked 2 goals last week and we’re exicted to watch him play in his first AFL Grand Final. Taylor Walker did kick 5 goals against the Tigers in Round 6 but Rance is a tough opponent. Dustin Martin is currently $10 and he’s coming off 3 goals against the Giants. But he mainly rests forward so first goal will be tough.

The two small forwards, Charlie Cameron and Daniel Rioli look like the best options. Cameron kicked the first goal last week and most of the attention will be on Betts/Walker. While for Rioli, he stepped up last week and kicked 4 goals. We’re backing each player in the Grand Final.
Best Value: Charlie Cameron ($12) or Daniel Rioli ($14)

To get 30 disposals

Matt Crouch is the favourite in this betting market and he’s been in superb touch. He has collected 31 disposals in both finals and he had 38 against the Tigers in Round 6. He has gone 30+ in his last 10 matches so he’s a huge chance here. Dusty is the only favourite for the Tigers and he had a sub-par 20 disposal match against the Giants. He hasn’t reached 30+ in the finals so we wouldn’t bet on him here. For the Crows, Rory Sloane and Rory Laird are good value bets. They both had 30+ disposals in the last match against the Tigers. Laird played one of his best games last week with 32 disposals and 15 marks. He’ll be the best value bet.
Best Value: Rory Laird ($2.25)

Prediction:

This should be a great Grand Final between two sides that haven’t featured on the big stage for a while. On paper, the Crows will be hard to beat. They have a great record this season and they dominated the Tigers in the only meeting. They have a great forward line which we believe will be hard for the Tigers to stop. The Crows are also strong in the backline and the likes of Laird will be the key. In the midfield, the Tigers have Dusty but Crouch is in great form. They also welcomed back Sloane last week and he’s so important in the clearances. In the end, we’re backing the Crows to beat the line of 5.5 points as they are 2-0 ATS in the finals. Sorry Tiger fans!
Crows -5.5 ($1.92)

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