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AFL – Finals Week 1 2017 Preview, Best Bets, and Promotions

afl-previews-header AFL – Finals Week 1 2017 Preview, Best Bets, and Promotions

Preview of AFL Finals Week 1 with Best Bets for every game

The following AFL Finals Week 1 Preview will provide an overview of each game and our best betting predictions.


Qualifying Final – Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants

September 7, 2017 @ Adelaide Oval
Odds: Crows $1.50, Giants $2.60

Betting preview of the Crows versus the Giants at Adelaide Oval on Thursday.

Crows Form:

The Crows kick off the AFL Finals with a home game against the Giants. They finished the season with two losses but they basically tanked in the last match. The Crows have a 8-3 record at home this season and they average 109.8 points per game.

Last 5 Matches:
LOST by 29 – Crows 10.11.71, Eagles 15.10.100 – Round 23, 2017
LOST by 3 – Crows 11.14.80, Swans 13.5.83 – Round 22, 2017
WON by 43 – Crows 18.15.123, Bombers 12.8.80 – Round 21, 2017
WON by 84 – Crows 18.22.130, Power 7.4.46 – Round 20, 2017
DREW – Crows 16.7.103, Magpies 15.13.103 – Round 19, 2017

Giants Form:

GWS head to Adelaide for a crucial final matchs. They finished in the top four and they would love a double chance. In Round 23, they lost by 44 points in Geelong so they’ll need to improve on the road. They also have a 5-5 record in away matches this season. But they’ve still won four of their last five matches.

Last 5 Matches:
LOST by 44 – Giants 8.11.59, Cats 15.13.103 – Round 23, 2017
WON by 21 – Giants 12.9.81, Eagles 9.6.60 – Round 22, 2017
WON by 48 – Giants 16.9.105, Bulldogs 7.15.57 – Round 21, 2017
WON by 35 – Giants 14.13.97, Demons 10.2.62 – Round 20, 2017
WON by 12 – Giants 13.20.98, Dockers 13.8.86 – Round 19, 2017

Head to Head (Since 2010) – Crows: 7-1

Adelaide have dominated the Giants in the head to head. They smashed them in Round 1 by 56 points at this venue. Overall, the Crows lead the H2H 7-1 and the Giants only win was back in 2015 in Western Sydney.

Last 2 Meetings:

Crows won by 56 points – Round 1, 2017 – Crows 22.15.147 d Giants 14.7.91 (238 total points)
Crows won by 22 points – Round 10, 2016 – Crows 15.17.107 d Giants 13.7.85 (192 total points)

Big Win Little Win

The sides have never played in a close match of under 22 points. But this is the first meeting in the finals so we’re expecting a 1-39 contest. The Crows have a 7-1 record against the Giants so they’re the best chance at 1-39.
Best bet: Crows 1-39 ($2.10)

Prediction:

Adelaide will be hard to beat at home and they have a great record against the Giants. The line is 13.5 points and the Crows are 7-1 ATS.
Crows -13.5 ($1.92)

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Qualifying Final – Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers

September 8, 2017 @ MCG
Odds: Cats $1.74, Tigers $2.10

Betting preview of the Cats versus the Tigers at the MCG on Friday.

Cats Form:

Geelong ended the season with an impressive 44 point win over the Giants. They finished second on the ladder but this final will be played at the MCG. They have won the past two at the MCG and 3 of 5 this season. Joel Selwood will return for the finals and they’ve won three in a row without him.

Last 5 Matches:
WON by 44 – Cats 15.13.103, Giants 8.11.59 – Round 23, 2017
WON by 11 – Cats 10.10.70, Magpies 9.5.59 – Round 22, 2017
WON by 14 – Cats 11.14.80, Tigers 9.12.66 – Round 21, 2017
LOST by 46 – Cats 8.13.61, Swans 16.11.107 – Round 20, 2017
WON by 65 – Cats 18.15.123, Blues 8.10.58 – Round 19, 2017

Tigers Form:

Richmond are back in the AFL finals and they’ll be looking for their first finals victory since 2001 (against Carlton). They’ve lost four finals in a row but they have a major advantage at the MCG. They have a 9-2 record at the venue this season and the crowd will be mostly Richmond fans. Coming into the finals, the Tigers thrashed both the Saints and the Dockers. They’ll also be buoyed by the re-signing of Dustin Martin.

Last 5 Matches:
WON by 41 – Tigers 19.8.122, Saints 12.9.81 – Round 23, 2017
WON by 104 – Tigers 25.5.155, Dockers 7.9.51 – Round 22, 2017
LOST by 14 – Tigers 9.12.66, Cats 11.14.80 – Round 21, 2017
WON by 29 – Tigers 13.15.93, Hawks 9.10.64 – Round 20, 2017
WON by 33 – Tigers 14.14.98, Suns 10.5.65 – Round 19, 2017

Head to Head (Since 2010) – Cats: 8-0

The Cats haven’t lost against Richmond since 2006 and they’ve won the past 8 against them at the MCG. They met in Round 21 this season and the Cats won by 14 points.

Last 2 Meetings:

Cats won by 14 points – Round 21, 2017 – Cats 11.14.80 d Tigers 9.12.66 (146 total points)
Cats won by 4 points – Round 21, 2016 – Cats 10.22.82 d Tigers 12.6.78 (160 total points)

Big Win Little Win

In the last four meetings, the margin has been under 15 points so we’re predicting another 1-39 margin in this one. The Cats have the better head to head record so they would be the best bet at 1-39.
Best bet: Cats 1-39 ($2.25)

Prediction:

The Cats have the wood over the Tigers and we all know about the Tigers finals struggles. This should be close match with the Cats getting over the line by 1-2 goals.
Cats WIN ($1.74)

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Elimination Final – Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers

September 9, 2017 @ SCG
Odds: Swans $1.20, Bombers $4.60

Betting preview of the Swans versus the Bombers at the SCG on Saturday.

Swans Form:

Sydney finished 6th on the ladder and face the Bombers in a home final. After starting the season with a 0-6 record, this was an incredible effort. They come into the finals as one of the form sides. They thrashed the Blues by 81 in Round 23 and Franklin kicked 10 goals to win the Coleman. His matchup with Hurley will be the key.

Last 5 Matches:
WON by 81 – Swans 21.12.138, Blues 8.9.57 – Round 23, 2017
WON by 3 – Swans 13.5.83, Crows 11.14.80 – Round 22, 2017
WON by 104 – Swans 22.11.143, Dockers 5.9.39 – Round 21, 2017
WON by 46 – Swans 16.11.107, Cats 8.13.61 – Round 20, 2017
LOST by 6 – Swans 9.12.66, Hawks 10.12.72 – Round 19, 2017

Bombers Form:

Essendon face the Swans in a tough Elimination final on the road. But they almost upset the Swans in the last meeting and they have the talent to cause an upset. However, they have won just 4 of 11 matches on the road this season and they’ll need to be at there very best in Sydney.

Last 5 Matches:
WON by 15 – Bombers 16.11.107, Dockers 14.8.92 – Round 23, 2017
WON by 33 – Bombers 12.18.90, Suns 9.3.57 – Round 22, 2017
LOST by 43 – Bombers 12.8.80, Crows 18.15.123 – Round 21, 2017
WON by 8 – Bombers 11.18.84, Blues 11.10.76 – Round 20, 2017
LOST by 30 – Bombers 13.19.97, Bulldogs 19.13.127 – Round 19, 2017

Head to Head (Since 2010) – Swans: 9-1

Sydney are 9-1 against the Bombers since 2010 and they’ve won four in a row against them at the SCG.

Last 2 Meetings:

Swans won by 1 point – Round 14, 2017 – Swans 11.20.86 d Bombers 12.13.85 (171 total points)
Swans won by 81 points – Round 7, 2016 – Swans 20.15.135 d Bombers 7.12.54 (189 total points)

Big Win Little Win

The Bombers collapsed in the last meeting and the Swans won by a point. The last final at the SCG between the sides also ended in a point so it should be a close match. The Swans are tough to beat at home and they’re 3-2 against the 1-39 at the SCG against the Bombers.
Best bet: Swans 1-39 ($2.10)

Prediction:

The Bombers almost beat the Swans in the last meeting, yet the line is 32 points. So we would suggest backing the Bombers at this. But Sydney should win by around 1-3 goals.
Bombers +32.5 ($1.92)

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Elimination Final – Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles

September 9, 2017 @ Adelaide Oval
Odds: Power $1.46, Eagles $2.75

Betting preview of the Power versus the Eagles at Adelaide Oval on Saturday.

Power Form:

Port host the Eagles at the Adelaide Oval in the last final. The Power are 8-3 at home this season and they’ll be looking to continue their good home form. They thrashed the Suns by 115 points in Round 23. But they haven’t played well against top eight sides this season. They have lost 6 of 7 matches against teams in the finals this season. Although, the one win was against the Eagles in Perth.

Last 5 Matches:
WON by 115 – Power 20.15.135, Suns 3.2.20 – Round 23, 2017
WON by 17 – Power 14.12.96, Bulldogs 11.13.79 – Round 22, 2017
WON by 27 – Power 14.14.98, Magpies 10.11.71 – Round 21, 2017
LOST by 84 – Power 7.4.46, Crows 18.22.130 – Round 20, 2017
WON by 2 – Power 9.9.63, Saints 8.13.61 – Round 19, 2017

Eagles Form:

The Eagles scrapped into the finals in Round 23 with a great win over the Crows. They have three champions retiring (Priddis, Mitchell, Petrie) and they’ll be looking for one last finals run. Since Round 13, the Eagles have gone win-loss in their last 11 matches so they’re very inconsistent. They also have a 4-7 record in away matches this season.

Last 5 Matches:
WON by 29 – Eagles 15.10.100, Crows 10.11.71 – Round 23, 2017
LOST by 21 – Eagles 9.6.60, Giants 12.9.81 – Round 22, 2017
WON by 17 – Eagles 15.10.100, Blues 12.11.83 – Round 21, 2017
LOST by 8 – Eagles 14.11.95, Saints 15.13.103 – Round 20, 2017
WON by 68 – Eagles 17.11.113, Lions 6.9.45 – Round 19, 2017

Head to Head (Since 2010) – Eagles: 6-5

The Eagles have a great record against the Power as they’ve won three in a row at the Adelaide Oval against them. However, the Power won the only meeting this season by 32 points.

Last 2 Meetings:

Power won by 32 points – Round 16, 2017 – Power 18.12.120 d Eagles 13.10.88 (208 total points)
Eagles won by 10 points – Round 7, 2017 – Eagles 15.7.97 d Power 12.15.87 (184 total points)

Big Win Little Win

In the last 6 meetings, the 1-39 margin is 6-0. The last final between the sides was back in 2007 and the result was 3 points. We’re expecting another close one. The Eagles are 3-0 against the Power at the venue and they’ve won them all by 1-39 so they’re massive value at this bet.
Best bet: Eagles 1-39 ($3.30)

Prediction:

This should be another belter between these two sides and the Eagles are a great bet at the line of 15.5. They’ve won the last three at the venue against the Power and they’re a good finals side.
Eagles +15.5 ($1.92)

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